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Forecast Update 11th July




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Comment Share Posted on Wednesday July 11th at 9:20 a.m.

Should be a great day for skiing today. Rain, strong winds and warm temperatures will make ski weather this weekend very ordinary. Although rainfall amounts look a bit lower than previous forecasts however I don't expect snow until Monday when winds will shift a cooler SW'ly.

  • Latest infrared satellite courtesy of the BoM, JMA and NASA. That big blob of cloud to the SE of Australia is what will hit NZ  by Friday. Latest infrared satellite courtesy of the BoM, JMA and NASA. That big blob of cloud to the SE of Australia is what will hit NZ by Friday.

Rest of Wednesday: Mostly sunny, light and variable winds. A fantastic day on the slopes.

Thursday: Cloud will begin building from the west early Thursday as a front approaches. Winds will become strengthen to around 50km/h from the NW by Thursday afternoon. Showers are possible for the most western resorts by Thursday night, however it will be too warm for snow below 2000m

Friday: Definitely not a day for the slopes. Heavy rain, particularly in the west, strong winds gusting to almost 100km/h from the NW. Resorts to the east (like Mt Hutt) look like they will be spared the worst of the rain. TC, Temple Basin and possibly Coronet won't be so lucky with 40mm+ of rain likely during Friday.

Saturday: It is a bit unclear if we will get light showers or heavy rain however it will still be another very ordinary day. Warm temperatures (5 degrees about 1500m), strong winds and low visibility are enough to conclude it will be a fairly ordinary day.

Sunday: Similar to Friday, warm, strong winds and heavy rain particularly in the west.

Monday: Finally it looks like winds will turn a coooler SW as a cold front crosses during Monday. Snow is looking likely as some of the precipitation lingers around however at this stage it is not looking like a substantial amount. Will update on totals closer to the date.

Tuesday: Most models are showing the redevelopment of a high pressure system which looks like it will bring sunny skies and light winds.

Looking Ahead: Apart from Monday, nothing on the charts is really getting me excited about a cold-snowy outbreak. High pressure looks like it will remain dominant next week. the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is still forecast to be positive over the next 10 days. Eventually the patterns will reverse however I cannot see any indication to suggest it will happen soon.

-NZsnowforecast

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